The 'Petropolitics' of The Caspian Sea

Chinese Influence

As China seeks to secure energy resources to fuel its ever expanding economy and population, geopolitical tensions are apt to run high. Despite being the single most influential player in the global natural gas market, increasing domestic prices are spurring state owned energy conglomerates to not only step up its own natural gas development, but also to expand their capacity to import liquid natural gas (LNG) from places like Australia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Qatar.

The keystone of the Chinese energy infrastructure lies within the East-West pipeline that transports gas from the energy rich, but volatile region of Xinjiang . In effort to broaden international energy access, work is currently underway to complete a 1,139 mile China-Central Asia pipeline that connects Xinjaing with resource ridden Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The Caspian Sea and the surrounding basin is a largely untapped reserve of LNG traditionally harvested by Moscow via the Russian-Turkmenistan pipeline. However recent pipeline damages have brought the natural gas transport to a trickle and shifted economic and commercial energy influence to China.

Political Forces in the Caspian Region

With its skyrocketing demand and wherewithal to invest, Chinese energy companies look very attractive to countries like Turkmenistan, but these gas-rich countries will certainly tread carefully as attendant political influence is not always viewed favorably. Most are not interested in supplanting one imperial master in Moscow for another in Beijing.
While US and EU interest in Caspian region are strong, with a $2 billion trans-Caspian, Nabucco project planned to go west across the Caspian and through Turkey to Austria, its position is weak. Competing private companies are working against one another and current Chinese influence would likely require Chinese support, both financial and technical.

As the China expands its interests, both politically and economically, it must be wary of the stability of the region. Moreover, Western powers and Russia need to shore up energy infrastructure if they want to continue to be players in the Caspian basin. Ultimately it is up to the Central Asian states to determine the role these energy hungry world powers can play in harvesting their resources, entering exclusive contracts or allowing undue access could turn politically sour.