Two weeks after a mass exodus of over 100,000 Uzbeks from the south of Kyrgyzstan, almost half are beginning to slowly trickle back home. This past week refugees, though preferring to stay in UN relief camps, were strongly encourage by government officials to return home in order to vote on the constitutional referendum that would reduce presidential power and strengthen parliament. To many, the Kyrgyz government’s statements were interpreted as threats to their citizenship. A continued, but quieted tension awaits them, as the interim government attempts to stave off any further conflict.
However, voters did approve the new mandate with 90% support allowing the government some sense of elevated authority. Nonetheless, weakness of the current Kyrgtzstani leadership should be worrying to both neighboring and allied countries, with legitimacy still in question.
Geopolitical Significance
Nestled in the center of the massive Asian continent, Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous country with a poor internal infrastructure. Though Soviet-era build’s profited the state 50 airports, most can only be used for internal travel and military transport. Due to a failure to meet EU safety regulations, no airline registered within the country may operate internationally. As the only state in the world to have both U.S. and Russian military bases within its borders, Kyrgyzstan is hardly unfamiliar with geopolitical manipulations. However isolated and mountainous topography, lack of convenient natural resources, and floundering industry have made it a questionable bet for either countries strategic interest. Russia, as the former imperial power in the region, seems to have more stake in the affair—with domestic investment and industrial capital. China too has a budding interest in a stable Central Asian region, as hopes of oil and natural gas sprout along with a planned oil pipeline in neighboring Xingjiang province. Additionally, keeping riotous overthrows at bay in Kyrgyzstan will likely deprive any neighboring minority fundamentalists, whether Islamic or ethnic, any motivation to upset native rule themselves.
Though they have already been of limited assistance, relevant adjacent countries Uzbekistan and Tajikistan will likely balk at opening their borders wide enough for any sizeable group of refugees to flow through, much less have the capacity or resources to provide any neighborly internal aid.
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